I am writing today to announce the closure of the Michigan Messenger. After four years of operation in Michigan, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news into a single site, The American Independent at Americanindependent.com. This is part of a shift in strategy, towards new forms [...]
An abstinence-only presentation provided to numerous school districts in Calhoun and Eaton Counties in October of this year provided false and misleading information to students about HIV, experts allege.
Two county registers of deeds filed a class action lawsuit Monday on behalf of Michigan’s 83 counties alleging that the Mortgage Electronic Registration Services owes millions of dollars in property title transfer taxes.
Despite evidence of the impact of mercury on children and public health, Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette last month joined with 24 other state attorneys general in filing a lawsuit to scuttle new EPA regulations that would reduce mercury emissions from power plants.
Or Sometimes It is Just the Math crossposted from Blogging For Michigan
Ok, I am an analysis geek. I admit it. And I have to say, I am blown away by the great analysis done by Nicholas Beaudrot on the GOP incumbent House races. Check out his spreadsheet: click here
He shows how Obama makes us competitive not just in MI-07, and MI-09 but against McCotter, Rogers and Upton. WAHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
The analysis behind the numbers:
I’ve attempted to build a very crude estimate of Barack Obama’s performance on a district-by-district basis. I’ve given him 95% of the black vote, 60% of the Hispanic vote, 55% of the college white vote, and 35% of the non-college white vote. This gives him 43% of the overall white-plus-Asian/other vote, and just over 50% nationwide.
snip
Anywhere that Obama gets 45% of the vote or more, a strong local challenger has a shot at winning the district, especially if it’s an open seat.
from Cogitamus
Then Beaudrot takes a look at GOP House Incumbent Races. Using the same parameters he arrives results and ranks them nationally. Look at our Michigan races:
Ranked 8th MI-09 Knollenberg Obama Projection 54.6%
Ranked 15th MI-11 McCotter Obama Projection 50.9%
Ranked 18th MI-08 Rogers Obama Projection 50.5%
Ranked 31st MI-06 Upton Obama Projection 48.6%
Beaudrot takes special notice of the Alexander/Rogers race in CD 08
For example Obama stands a chance at winning Mike Rogers district in MI-08 (Lansing, exurban Detroit), but Rogers is in the conservative half of the Republican Caucus. He should have a substantial challenger, but he doesn’t. Here’s the website of his opponent, Bob Alexander (D).
Bob Alexander’s website is here And he does have an Act Blue page here
Given the results in the recent special House elections, and this analysis by Beaudrot, I gotta say I am optomistic! Alexander has recently received support from the local chapter of the MEA. They are recommending him for endorsement to the NEA. Wouldn’t an upset be a great to surprise to Mike Rogers and the Republicans. Drop some money in the Act Blue bucket for Bob if you can!
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