Voters will have to add that variable into their voting plans in Michigan’s 5th Congressional District in August. There, long time Congressman Dale Kildee (D-Flint) is facing a challenge from small business owner Scott Withers. Kildee is 80 and been in the seat for 17 terms (that’s 34 years). Withers is 37 and has a varied history in the media over the years.

Withers has served stints at CNN and Q Television. He runs a small communications firm. He’s been with his partner, Lane, for 10 years, reports the Dallas Voice, a gay newspaper in Dallas.

If Withers beats Kildee in August — which in the current anti-incumbency furor nationwide is not outside the realm of possibilities — and wins the general in November, he would become Michigan’s first openly gay Congressman. He would join Reps. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin), Jared Polis (D-Colorado) and Barney Frank (D-Mass.) in the ranks of the out gay politicians in the nation’s capitol.

In a three paragraph statement issued by her campaign shortly after 11 a.m. Wednesday, Whitmer said she was withdrawing from the race to be with her two elementary age daughters.

As I have traveled our state, it has become clear to me that this rigorous campaign schedule and pursuit cannot continue if I am to be the best mother I can to my six and seven year old daughters. At this critical time in their lives, my girls need their mom to be there to pick them up from school, read to them at bedtime, and help them with homework. It is with this in mind, I have decided to withdraw my name from consideration for the Office of Attorney General.

In her statement, Whitmer said she had raised over $200,000 and garnered he endorsement of over one hundred former and current public servants. She had formally been in the race for three months.

Her exited leaves the race with one contender, Richard Bernstein, heir to the 1-800-Call-Sam personal injury lawyer firm.

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero speaks about World AIDS Day in East Lansing, Dec. 1. He has announced he is mulling a run for governor in 2010, at the request of national Democratic party leaders.

The involvement of both, experts say, demonstrates the importance of the 2010 governor’s race both in Michigan and nationally. It also shows the low confidence national Democrats have in Lt. Gov. John Cherry to keep the governorship from falling into Republican control.

There are two principal reasons why the race is important to both parties in the state of Michigan. The first is the effect the candidate at the top of the ticket has downballot.

“The best thing that can be said about whoever is the Democratic nominee is you hope, if you are a Democrat, that person does well in the race for governor because he or she will probably have some coat tail effect on other candidates on the same party ticket on down the ballot,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “If a nominee of a particular party is getting wiped out at the top of the ticket, it could have a devastating effect on the other candidates of the same party, on the same day, in the same election.”

Ballenger is a Republican who has held offices in the state, as well as a post in the Ford White House.

In short, with Democrats vying to keep control of the Michigan House, and win a majority in the Senate in 2010, the candidate at the top of the ticket is going to have an impact.

The second reason the 2010 gubernatorial election is vital to both parties in this state: Redistricting for the state legislature and Congress is coming up.

Keeping control of the Michigan House and winning the Senate is important, said Democrat Mark Grebner, an Ingham County commissioner who runs Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing, because those two houses and the governor are going to create new legislative districts based on the 2010 census. How districts in Michigan are drawn impacts the competitiveness with districts often drawn to favor specific parties.

Thus, new districts drawn to favor Democrats could result in a decade of Democratic majorities, and likewise, districts drawn to benefit Republicans could result in GOP majorities for a decade. Control of the legislative agenda is at stake.

But there is also the impact that the 2010 governor’s race can have upticket.

In addition to control over both chambers of the legislature, the sitting governor could have a strong impact on the 2012 presidential election, Grebner said.

“It’s about Democratic or progressive politics,” Grebner said. “Having Mike Cox as governor would not make life better for [President] Barack [Obama].”

But Ballenger said the party in control of the governor’s mansion will have little effect on whether Obama will win the state in 2012, noting that presidential candidates from the opposition party of the sitting governor have, in the last couple of decades, done well in the state. He points to Republican Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1984, as well as Democrat Bill Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996. In 1984, Michigan was being run by Democrat Jim Blanchard, and in 1992 and 1996, Republican John Engler was governor.

Ballenger said Michigan voters look at how the country is doing, and what the candidates stand for, not who is governor in the state.

Both Grebner and Ballenger said the White House and DNC are worried about Cherry’s chances because polling is consistently showing Granholm’s No. 2 trailing his Republican rivals. Grebner was particularly harsh in his assessment of his own party’s position going into 2010.

“They’re watching a train wreck,” said Grebner. “We have a walrus running for governor. It’s like putting up Geoffrey Feiger again. We’re really that stupid?”

“If we’re talking now about whether John Cherry is going to be a strong Democratic nominee, and remember that is not a sure thing a year out, the Democrats could be concerned because current polling shows him not doing very well against the Republicans. That’s an issue,” Ballenger said.

But is Virg Bernero the answer for Democrats?

Both Ballenger and Grebner say no.

“I don’t think Virg ends up winning the nomination,” said Grebner. “He is stronger on paper than in an election.”

Looking to history, Ballenger said Bernero’s chances of winning of the governor’s office are slim, at best.

He said there have only been two men elected Michigan governor while mayor of a city — and both were mayor of Detroit. One was 109 years ago and the other was 73 years ago. Ballenger pointed out that C.S. Mott attempted a run for governor as a Republican 53 years ago, and he lost.

“[Mayors getting elected as governors] just doesn’t happen,” Ballenger said. “That doesn’t mean lightning couldn’t strike and an historical moment couldn’t happen in the person of Bernero or somebody else from some other small Michigan city who might choose to run for governor and get elected.”

Bernero said he is waiting to make a final decision based on how much a campaign to win will cost him. He said that was going to be his deciding factor.

Ballenger said for Bernero to run a credible race, he is going to have raise and spend at least $3 to $5 million, while Grebner puts the cost at between $5 and $10 million. In 2002, when Granholm faced former Gov. James Blanchard and then-U.S. Rep. John Bonior in the Democratic primary, campaign records show she raised $6.5 million and spent just over $6.4 million to win the primary.

He said in an interview with Michigan Messenger on Monday that since news broke this weekend that he had been approached by the Obama administration to run for governor, but had declined, he had received phone calls and emails from people all over the state encouraging him to run.

Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero (Photo by Todd A. Heywood/Michigan Messenger)

“The polling shows [Lt. Gov. John Cherry] can’t win, and [Michigan House Speaker Andy] Dillon is not a viable alternative for Democrats,” Bernero said. “The current leadership is weak, and that’s the cross John Cherry must bear,” he said, referring to Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm. “People are hungry for change.”

Bernero, a former state senator, state representative and Ingham County commissioner, is fresh off a mayoral re-election victory where he touted his blue collar roots, growing up in Pontiac where his father worked for General Motors.

He said if he does make a gubernatorial run official, it is because Michigan has lost its “cutting edge.”

“I feel like I have seen that diminish in my lifetime,” he said, referring to how Michigan was consistently a leader in innovation. “There doesn’t seem to be an urgency at the capitol. Seem oblivious to that. I don’t think our state motto should be ‘how low can you go?’”

He also said the latest round of budget cuts, which hit state revenue sharing and left Lansing city officials with a $3 million budget hole, are a major issue for him. It called the consistent partisan battles at the Capitol an “unending stream of bull,” and said there was a distinct “lack of leadership.”

“I’m pretty frustrated,” he said. “I’m left having to say can I do more for my city across the street?”

But Bernero’s unsuccessful mayoral opponent, at-large Lansing City Council member Carol Wood, said in an interview she is disappointed with the mayor’s talk about next year’s governor’s race.

“He was repeatedly asked about whether he planned to serve out his four-year term if elected, and he said ‘yes.’ He said he loved being mayor,” Wood said. “This is another example of his untruthfulness. It’s par for the course. Less than a month from the election and he’s already going back on promises.”

Bernero said he plans to make a final decision sometime after the first of the year.

As Edwards prepares to gear up for Super Tuesday, he will find it increasingly difficult to avoid the perception that the Democratic nomination is a horse race between Obama and Clinton. To date, Edwards has not won a Democratic primary or caucus.

Voter advocates are concerned about privacy issues and inhibiting voter participation. They also criticize using public monies for political purposes, such as collecting lists of voters’ presumed party preferences.  But in the context of elections, gathering such information is standard procedure.

“The Republicans are going to make out very well in this presidential primary because they will have succeeded in getting the state of Michigan to pay for their ability to collect the names of their people,” says Jan BenDor, statewide coordinator for non-profit, non-partisan Michigan Election Reform Alliance.  “They will finally have a perfect mailing list of who the Republicans are. The state of Michigan will spend $10 million for them to do that.  They have wanted this for years.”

The Democratic Party will also receive a list – voters who requested a Democratic ballot.  But given the incomplete field of candidates on the ballot and the possibility of cross-over voting, the Democratic list is likely to be smaller and less informative.

Continued -University of Michigan political science professor, Michael Traugott, who specializes in campaigns and elections, agrees that one purpose of the primary is to gather names of citizens and their likely voting preference. Speaking about the motivations of political parties, Traugott says,”A lot of what they do in the caucuses and primaries with these party ballots is check on the accuracy of their lists.”  He says that consultants and strategists collect information from local election officials to supplement and refine existing voter lists.

“What they really want are names and addresses.” He says that information collected in primary elections is cross referenced and statistically analyzed to arrive at what are believed to be authoritative, up-to-date address lists of likely voters for each party.

According to Tom Frazier, legislative liaison with the Michigan Township Association, the Secretary of State’s  Bureau of Elections will be creating a form for all clerks to use on election day with a box to check whether a voter wants  a Republican ballot or a Democratic ballot.

“They aren’t declaring what their party preference is, only declaring they want to vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary,” says Frazier.  “This is different than the last time this came about, which was the presidential election in 1992, where people did have to formally declare their party preference before being given a ballot.”

The League of Women Voters of Michigan is squarely opposed to “any procedures that require voters to name a party in order to cast a vote,” says Jessica Reiser, president of the group. The League contends that such procedures at the time of voting inhibit voter participation.

Traugott concurs, but thinks the actual number of voters turned off  by such a procedure will be small and that privacy issues don’t really apply. “Registration and voting records have always been public. But in these special circumstances they can record which ballot you requested and that would become part of the record,” he says. “It is an act of freewill and they don’t know who you voted for. Some small proportion of voters won’t come to the polls because of it.”