Zogby poll from Sunday points to tightening five-point race

Presidential polling in Michigan and across the country (source: RealClearPolitics.com)

Last week’s polling data reached different results and prompted a great deal of attention in the media and the blogosphere, but the bottom line remains the same: Obama is still in a very strong position, perhaps even stronger than last week because of movement in his direction in a couple more traditionally Republican states that will likely force the McCain campaign to spend scarce resources where they did not expect to have to previously.

The first thing that happened was that on Wednesday, Oct. 22, the AP put out a poll showing that Obama had only a one point lead nationally.

The media and conservative bloggers promoted the story, but few bothered to ask why one poll, out of more than a dozen others, showed such disparate results. A quick look at the makeup of the sample used by the A.P. poll reveals the reason: 45% of the poll’s respondents called themselves born-again or evangelical Christians. But exit polls from 2004 showed that this group made up 23% of voters. As software writers like to say — garbage in, garbage out. Start with a sample that does not reflect the actual makeup of the population, and you can make a poll say almost anything.

The national tracking polls out on Sunday all put the lead between 5 and 9 points for Obama, with the Zogby poll and the Gallup “traditional” poll showing a slimming 5 point lead for Obama, Rasmussen showing an 8 point lead, and the Gallup “expanded” poll a 9 point lead.

The two polls showing a 5 point lead are probably too low, for reasons detailed in our earlier article detailing the strengths and weaknesses of those polls.

In the case of Zogby, they are still using the same weighting assumptions based on 2004 demographic data, while more recent data shows significant shifts in voting patterns, party registration and other factors. Polling expert Nate Silver argues convincingly that one of the least reliable polls these days is Zogby — the Sunday results from which Politico used to buttress a piece published last night reporting that the race was tightening again and that McCain was guaranteeing a victory.

The national lead is most likely in the 7-9 point range at this point.

But swing states are all that matter

But as always, the state polls are the ones that really matter. The day after the AP national poll came out last week, Quinnipiac put out a new round of state polls showing larger-than-ever margins in favor of Obama in several key battleground states.

In Ohio, for example, their poll showed Obama with a shocking 14 point lead, which seems entirely too high to me. On the other hand, they did use a very large sample group (more than 1300 voters) and Quinnipiac is rated among the top 1/3 in Michigan native Silver’s pollster ratings. And two other polls in the last few days gave Obama a 10 and 12 point lead respectively. The average in Ohio is now more than 6 points, the best they have ever looked for Obama in that state.

Florida

In Florida, the Quinnipiac poll gave Obama a 5 point lead. That struck me as a bit high as well, but then a St. Petersburg Times poll on the same day gave Obama a 7 point lead. Other poll results from Florida are mixed, with one showing McCain with a 1 point lead. The average of the recent polls is just over 2 points, which is well within the margin of error. Florida continues to be a virtual dead heat, but Obama would seem to have a slight advantage now.

Quaker state

In Pennsylvania, which the McCain campaign is focusing on very strongly in a bid to turn that blue state to red, the Quinnipiac poll gave Obama a 13 point lead. This is well within the normal range for that state over the last few weeks. The average lead for Obama is nearly 11 points in the Keystone state, with no poll in several weeks showing less than a 7 point lead for the Democratic candidate.

The big news in PA this week was the story of a McCain campaign volunteer who said she was assaulted by a black man who carved a B in her face after telling her he was going to “teach her a lesson” for supporting McCain. The volunteer later admitted she had made the story up. It remains to be seen how this affects the vote in that state, if it does so at all.

Virginia, North Carolina

Obama also continued to run strong in several traditionally Republican states. In Virginia, the polls still show Obama leading in every poll, by an average of 7 points. In North Carolina, a Rasmussen poll gives McCain a 2 point lead, the first poll to show the Republican candidate leading in the last 3 weeks, but other polls give Obama a small lead. The average is now 1 point for Obama, so the Tar Heel state is well within the margin of error. Early voting results in that state, however, show much higher turnout among Democrats so the Obama campaign is still confident of winning North Carolina.

Indiana

In Indiana, two polls last week showed Obama in the lead, one by 4 points and the other by 10 points. The average there is a 0.5 lead for Obama, but that includes two polls giving McCain the lead that are 3 weeks old now. That has to be a disturbing trend for the McCain campaign, who are now having to defend a state they had safely in their column until October began.

Missouri

Missouri continues to be a virtual dead heat, with poll results bouncing rather wildly. Three recent polls give McCain a 1 point lead, but two others give Obama a 5 and 8 point lead respectively. The average is Obama +2. Missouri is clearly in play and, here again, the McCain campaign is being forced to defend a state that they were counting on as an easy win previously.

Smaller swing states

In the smaller swing states, Obama is still looking good. His average lead in New Hampshire is more than 9 points. In Colorado it’s 6.5 points. It’s closer in normally red Nevada, with a 3.3 point lead for Obama. However one poll last week showed a tie. In New Mexico, Obama has an average lead of more than 8 points.

All in all, things are still looking very strong for Obama. RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com are now projecting Obama with 306 electoral votes, not counting 75 that are a toss up. FiveThirtyEight.com puts the number at 349 for Obama, 188 for McCain. Such numbers were almost inconceivable 5 weeks ago.