Two Michigan Republican congressional candidates struggling in wake of McCain departure

Congressional candidates for districts MI-07 and MI-09 (graphic: RealClearPolitics.com)

John McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign in Michigan might be the decisive factor that forces at least two incumbent Republican congressmen out of office.

U.S. Reps. Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg were already facing fierce fights against well-funded Democratic opponents when the financial crisis hit, seemingly resulting in a jump in Obama’s lead in state polls — a wide enough lead that McCain packed up his “Victory Centers” and moved his staff and funds to other states.

“Any time your standard bearer in a election year basically throws up the white flag and says, ‘I quit,’ and leaves the field of battle, it has to be a body blow to the whole party, on down to the candidates,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “It’s injurious.”

A Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post.com poll released Oct. 14 put Obama ahead by 16 points in Michigan, 54 percent to McCain’s 38 percent. That was up from a six-point lead in late September. In the same poll, 60 percent of voters said the economy was the “single most important issue” in determining whom they supported.

With his opponent holding such a commanding lead, McCain’s decision to pull his resources from the state and put them in battlegrounds he can still win would appear to make sense. But it leaves state Republicans to go it alone, with no help from McCain with fundraising, ads, literature or volunteers. The day after McCain announced his withdrawal, state GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis sent out a fundraising e-mail calling the pullout “a tough blow” that “leaves a tremendous hole in our ground campaign that we must now fill.”

Knollenberg, of Bloomfield Township in the 9th Congressional District, faces Gary Peters, the former state lottery commissioner, while Walberg, of Tipton in the 7th Congressional District, is battling state Sen. Mark Schauer. Both challengers have strong support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has poured resources into the races.

Last week the Rothenberg Political Report, a respected handicapper of congressional races, upgraded the Democrats’ chances in both races, giving Peters a slight advantage and listing the Walberg seat as a tossup. Various polls give both Democrats either a slight lead or place them in a dead heat with their Republican opponents.

Peters’ campaign raised $650,000 in the most recent quarter; last week it had $472,000 on hand. That leaves the campaign still heavily lagging Knollenberg, who has $1.9 million on hand. But campaign spokesman Clark Pettig said Peters would outwork Knollenberg.

Earlier polling results for MI-07, MI-09 (graphic: RealClearPolitics.com)

“Without the John McCain campaign doing the heavy lifting for him, in particular with its volunteer base and voter contact, there’s no way Joe Knollenberg can compete on the ground,” Pettig said. “We’ve knocked 115,000 doors and reached out to 200,000 voters. Mr. Knollenberg does not have the grassroots support to match that effort.”

Schauer is in a stronger financial position: He has $856,158 in cash available, while Walberg has $691,635. Walberg is a first-term congressman, a conservative who defeated moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in the 2006 Republican primary with the support of the Club for Growth, a PAC that funds anti-tax, free market candidates. Schwarz has endorsed Schauer in the current race.

Walberg was quoted in a Sept. 7 story in The Ann Arbor News saying of McCain, “We’ll help him and he’ll help us, there’s no doubt about it.” The story went on: “Walberg said he hopes McCain’s success in Michigan and Washtenaw County in the 2000 election, particularly among moderate Democrats and independents, can help offset the anticipated support countywide for his Democratic challenger, Mark Schauer.”

Neither Walberg nor Knollenberg’s campaign returned calls for comment.

Though some observers have speculated that the seats of Republican Reps. Mike Rogers and Thaddeus McCotter could also be at risk, political observers said that was unlikely. Pollster Mark Grebner recently conducted a mini-poll that showed Democratic challenger Bob Alexander closing in on Rogers. But Bernie Porn, of polling firm EPIC-MRA, said only a Democratic “tsunami” would boot anyone other than Knollenberg and Walberg. Michael Traugott, professor of communication studies at the University of Michigan, said the election would have to be of “landslide proportions” in order to sweep other Michigan Democrats into Congress.

“What’s happened in the last 10 to 20 years is seats have been made safer and safer, more partisan,” Traugott said.

“Knollenberg and Walberg are the only two [races] that are seriously competitive. And these seats were the most competitive by their boundaries to begin with.”

Both challengers should get a boost from Obama, who is expected to pull many first-time voters, along with large numbers of African-Americans. That could especially help Peters, whose district includes Pontiac.

“There’s a real intensity in terms of the intent to turn out voters, especially African-Americans and younger voters,” Porn said of the Obama campaign. “There were claims in the past by Kerry and Gore that they’d do well among younger voters, but this is different. There’s a genuine intensity among younger voters, and you can see that in the numbers of new registrants. They’re voting for Obama. We can’t assume they’ll vote Democratic down the ticket but I would be surprised if they didn’t.”

That high Democratic turnout could combine with a reduced Republican turnout to mean the death knell for Knollenberg and Walberg’s congressional careers.

“When McCain withdraws and reduces substantially the amount of money he spends in the state, it’s going to significantly impact mailings, ads, appearances at events that get on the news,” Traugott said. “All of these things will diminish turnout among Republicans and likely diminish support for Republican candidates.”

Though Republican turnout in the state is unlikely to suffer heavily as a result of McCain’s withdrawal, a small reduction could mean the difference between victory and defeat in tight races, Ballenger said.

“People just aren’t that motivated to get out and vote if they think there’s really no contest,” he said. “Both sides in a political campaign want to motivate their base voters, want to impress upon them that every vote counts. Well, if all of a sudden your flagbearer says ‘Forget about it, I’m pulling out, I’m going to get wiped out,’ what kind of message does that send? It’s not going to motivate people who were on the fence about voting.”