Obama’s winning hand in state-by-state polls

Michigan polling via RealClearPolitics.com

According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released yesterday, Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead for the first time. The result of the national opinion poll, showing the Democrat with a 10-point lead over John McCain, was up from a six-point lead for Obama two weeks ago.

Studies have shown the McCain campaign has gone largely or 100% negative with its advertising and message on the stump. But with only two weeks left until the election, that strategy does not appear to be helping slow down the momentum that Obama has built up in the all-important state-by-state polling, either.

Michigan continues to be solidly in the Obama column, with two consecutive polls showing him with a 16-point lead over McCain. As reported earlier, the McCain campaign has pulled all their resources from the state and essentially conceded it to Obama.

Obama clings to narrow leads in “must-wins for McCain” Ohio, Florida

Ohio remains, weakly, in the Democratic column with Obama having an average lead of 3.2 points in the recent polls. This is a state that McCain absolutely must win. If he loses Ohio, there is no way for him to put together a winning electoral map. For months, he held a small but steady lead in the state, but since the beginning of October, Obama has had the lead in 9 of 12 polls, with one showing a tie.

Florida is also a must-win state for McCain. Obama has the same lead in Florida as in Ohio, an average of 3.2 points, but the most recent poll gave McCain a 2 point lead. That poll, however, is the first one in the month of October to give McCain a lead; 9 others, including one with a slightly larger sample size taken in the same time frame, have shown Obama with a lead between 2 and 8 points.

McCain in the market for a blue state to flip as traditional red states turn purple, blue

The McCain campaign has repeatedly said that they think they have a chance of winning Pennsylvania, something made necessary by abandoning Michigan (Pennsylvania, like Michigan, was a Democratic state in 2004 and given the current situation, McCain needs to find one sizable blue state to flip in order to win). But the polls in Pennsylvania show Obama with a massive lead, with no poll this month showing any lead lower than 12 points.

Problems are also getting worse for McCain in traditionally Republican strongholds. In Virginia, which was for months a virtual dead heat, the Democratic candidate has now taken a sizable and consistent lead in the polls. In October, every single poll puts Obama in the lead and the average is now more than 8 points. Virginia has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.

North Carolina, another traditionally red state, is now a toss-up, with Obama holding a slim 1.2 point lead on average in the polls. But the mere fact that Obama has a lead is forcing the McCain campaign to shift scarce resources into the state, depriving them of the opportunity to use them elsewhere. By all accounts, the Obama campaign has a much stronger operation in the Tar Heel state than McCain does, with many more offices, paid staff and volunteers. He’s also outspending McCain by a huge margin there.

Missouri is another traditionally Republican state where Obama has a small lead, an average of 2.5 points. Again, this is a state that the McCain campaign didn’t have to worry about just a few weeks ago and now they have to buy advertising there that they didn’t intend on spending.

The smaller swing states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico also remain in Obama’s camp. Colorado shows an average lead of 6 points, Nevada shows an average lead of 4.2 points and New Mexico shows an average lead of 8.4 points.

The McCain campaign clearly needs something to happen that will reshuffle the cards of this election. At this point, they certainly know that they are holding a losing hand.