Obama extends his lead in swing state opinion polls

Michigan polling results for McCain vs. Obama, via RealClearPolitics.com

As we move into the final three weeks of the campaign, Obama is extending his lead at the national level and also in the key swing states. At the national level, the daily tracking polls give Obama an average lead of 6.6 points, with no poll showing him with less than a 5-point lead in quite some time. In four of the six national tracking polls, Obama is at his all-time high. But it’s the state-by-state polls that matter and the momentum that Obama has had for the last three weeks continued over the last week.

Michigan true blue

First, let’s look at the key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. These are called swing states because they have traditionally gone back and forth between Democratic and Republican from election to election. In Michigan, the McCain campaign suspended operations recently and the polls are showing why. The last three polls taken in Michigan give Obama leads of 16, 10 and 13 points respectively. Those are well outside the margin of error, of course, and at this point McCain has essentially conceded this state and its 17 electoral votes to Obama.

Ohio turning blue

In Ohio, perhaps the most important swing state of all, Obama now leads by an average of 3.5 points, with the last four polls giving him leads of 5, 2, 3 and 3 respectively. In fact, Obama has had the lead in 9 of the last 10 polls taken in the state of Ohio. No Republican has ever won an election without winning Ohio in the entire history of the nation. This does not bode well for McCain.

Pennsylvania solid blue

In Pennsylvania, Obama’s lead has stretched to an average of more than 13 points, all but ending any chance McCain had of winning the 21 electoral votes from that state. In the last two weeks, the polls there have been remarkably consistent, all coming in between 12 and 15 points in Obama’s favor. Pennsylvania is solidly in the Obama column at this point.

Florida, too? Who knew?

In Florida, where McCain had a small but solid lead for months until two weeks ago, Obama now leads by an average of more than 3 points. Obama had led McCain by between 3 and 8 points in seven of the last eight polls taken in the Sunshine State, all since Sept. 27.

Western swing is music to Obama

Obama has also maintained his lead in three smaller swing states — Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. In Colorado, he leads by an average of 4 points, with no poll showing McCain with even a small lead in almost a month. In Nevada, Obama has a 3 point lead on average. In New Mexico, the lead is more than 7 points.

Obama poised to make history in Appalachia

Much more remarkable is what has happened in a few traditionally strong Republican states. In Virginia, Obama has broken open a tight race and now leads by an average of more than 5 points. Three of the last four polls in Virginia show Obama with a lead of more than 8 points. Virginia hasn’t voted Democratic in 44 years.

In North Carolina, Obama now leads by nearly 2 points on average and has had the lead in six of the last eight polls. Just a month ago, McCain had a nearly 20-point lead in that state, but the Democrats have registered four times as many new voters as Republicans this year in that state and Obama is outspending McCain 8-1 on TV ads. Obama also has nearly 20 times as many paid staffers in that state as McCain has. Meanwhile, McCain has not visited the Tar Heel state since June. North Carolina hasn’t voted Democratic since 1976.

Virginia and North Carolina are not alone. In Missouri, the race is now a dead heat after McCain had led consistently throughout the campaign. In West Virginia, where polls are not taken very often, the most recent poll shows Obama with a staggering 8 point lead. Two weeks ago, McCain had an 8-point lead in that state.

We may be reaching the point where Obama’s lead is simply too much to overcome with only 3 weeks left in the campaign.

The takeaway

As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com said on Friday, “[Any] world in which McCain has a chance to win on Election Day is a world that looks very different from this one — some significant event will have to have occurred to fundamentally change the momentum of the race.”

Silver’s statistical models currently show Obama winning 91 percent of the time, and if the current polls hold, it could be with nearly 350 electoral votes. What looked like an incredibly close race only 3 weeks ago is now looking like a blowout.