Why McCain’s Michi-gone: It’s all about the Senate

Map of 2008 Senate races (source: The Cook Report)

McCain’s sudden and unexpected exit from Michigan took many by surprise, including Michigan’s Republican Party members and perhaps even Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. In spite of discussion about the impact the exit will have on certain House races by both Democrats and Republicans alike, no one has yet drawn solid lines linking the dots between the presidential race and other down-ticket races — specifically Senate races in several states.

The graphic here from the Cook Report showing the trend of open Senate seats gives us a strong clue as to the strategy now being employed by the Republican Party. There has been conjecture that McCain would move resources west to Wisconsin, Minnesota and Colorado and also to Maine and the Carolinas.

What a coincidence that most of these potential target states also have key Senate races viewed as competitive!

Minnesota, for example, is one of the few states in which McCain has been trending upward in polls, although at considerable advertising expense. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman’s seat is also up for grabs, with Democratic opponent Al Franken pulling ahead this last week in a Minnesota Tribune poll.

With Sen. Wayne Allard’s retirement, Colorado has an open seat at a time when the state has been trending blue. North Carolina’s Sen. Elizabeth Dole is toast by all accounts, with some Republicans saying that the polls are so bad that it’s not worth counting the votes in that state, but the GOP may not want to give up on a sentimental favorite within their party.

The murmuring about Maine does not appear to make much sense as a play for the Senate, since Republican Sen. Susan Collins is currently favored to win and McCain is trending upward. However, the polling does not reflect a wide and comfortable margin — and more importantly, the neighboring state of New Hampshire is up for grabs, since Sen. John Sununu is now running behind Democratic opponent Jeanne Shaheen by 5 percent. Maine is a less expensive media market, and Portland media buys may overlap the New Hampshire market, providing assistance to Sununu on the cheap.

And why Wisconsin, one might ask, since Wisconsin doesn’t have a Senate seat in play this cycle? Wisconsin is an opportunity to provide backdoor support to Coleman via ads placed in cheaper markets that overlap with Minnesota’s Twin Cities media markets, while providing backdoor support to Republicans in Michigan. Green Bay media buys influence Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (including college towns Houghton-Hancock and the largest UP city, Marquette) while getting some lighter pickup in the northwestern portion of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. Such ad buys could yield bonuses farther down the ticket if they help with Michigan’s Supreme Court Chief Justice Cliff Taylor in his bid for re-election, but it’s unlikely that the Wisconsin ad buys could help Republican Jack Hoogendyk in his uphill race against Democratic Sen. Carl Levin.