Latest polls show Obama with lead in every key swing state

Last week’s look at polling showed a strong surge for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama in all the key swing states.

You’ve probably heard by now that the campaign of Republican presidential nominee John McCain pulled out of Michigan to move staff and resources to other states where they think they have a chance to win. The problem is, he’s falling behind in all of the swing states, including those thought to be leaning Republican.

In Ohio, Obama now has an average lead of two points in the polls. In Pennsylvania, the average lead has grown to eight points, with one poll showing a 15-point lead.

Perhaps most astounding, three straight polls of likely voters in Virginia show Obama with leads of nine, six and three points respectively. Even in North Carolina, Obama now has a small lead in the polls, though well within the margin of error. In Florida, once safely in McCain’s column, four straight polls show Obama with leads of four, three, four and eight points respectively.

These are all states that were leaning toward McCain just two weeks ago. What explains the change? The polls seem to indicate three things driving this dynamic:

1. The financial crisis. Polls consistently show that the public believes that Obama cares more about their interests and they trust him more on the economy.

2. Palin. Since the interviews started airing, Palin’s approval has dropped like a stone. Even in conservative states like North Carolina, majorities are now convinced that she simply isn’t ready to be president.

3. The first presidential debate. The polls indicate that Obama’s performance calmed any fears undecided voters had about his ability to be president.

A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee sent out an e-mail yesterday that said McCain was leaving Michigan to spend more time and resources in Wisconsin and Minnesota:

“The RNC is shifting its focus to blue states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, where the McCain-Palin ticket’s commitment to reform will resonate with voters looking for leaders who will shake things up in Washington, rather than simply talk about change.”

But it seems hard to believe that they think McCain has a much better chance in those two states, both of which are traditionally very Democratic and both of which are clearly trending to Obama.

In Wisconsin, McCain has not been anywhere near a lead in months. The last three polls show Obama with a lead from six to nine points. In Minnesota, Obama’s average lead is almost six points and trending upward: The most recent poll in the Gopher State gives Obama a lead of 11 points.

We’ve reached the point now where this is Obama’s election to lose.

He now has a lead in every key swing state.

He’s had Iowa and New Mexico in the bag for weeks now, which means McCain has to hold all of these states plus Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Obama now leads in every one of those states, which means McCain has to reverse that trend and he simply has to run the table.

In order to win, McCain has to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. Obama only has to win one of them and he wins the election. Barring something really game-changing, this election may be over.