I am writing today to announce the closure of the Michigan Messenger. After four years of operation in Michigan, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news into a single site, The American Independent at Americanindependent.com. This is part of a shift in strategy, towards new forms [...]
An abstinence-only presentation provided to numerous school districts in Calhoun and Eaton Counties in October of this year provided false and misleading information to students about HIV, experts allege.
Two county registers of deeds filed a class action lawsuit Monday on behalf of Michigan’s 83 counties alleging that the Mortgage Electronic Registration Services owes millions of dollars in property title transfer taxes.
Despite evidence of the impact of mercury on children and public health, Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette last month joined with 24 other state attorneys general in filing a lawsuit to scuttle new EPA regulations that would reduce mercury emissions from power plants.
Michigan August poll results (source: RealClearPolitics.com)
As expected, the state polls are catching up to the national polls and Obama has made strong gains in the last week in several key states, most notably here in Michigan.
The most recent Michigan poll, taken by the Detroit Free Press, shows Obama with his largest lead ever: 13 points. That’s in addition to state polls in the last week that have shown him with leads of 3, 5, 8, 10 and 7 points. Obama is clearly extending his lead in Michigan.
Ohio mixed
Ohio remains a virtual dead heat. The last three polls have shown, respectively, a 1-point lead for McCain, a tie and a 1-point lead for Obama. Ohio is a very important state. If Obama flips Ohio into the Democratic column, then it will be all but impossible for McCain to put together a winning electoral map.
Pennsylvania solidifying blue
The Quaker State remains solidly in the Obama column with seven consecutive polls showing him with a lead ranging from 1 to 9 points. The three most recent polls give him a lead of 4, 4, and 6 points, respectively.
Iowa loves Obama
Iowa also remains firmly in Obama’s favor, with the polls showing an average lead of over 9 points.
Big swing, in swing state Virginia
Virginia continues to be in play and it looks like Obama has taken a lead there. The last four polls show the following: Obama +5, McCain +3, Obama +3 and Obama +6. This is much like Ohio; if Obama wins this state, it becomes virtually impossible for McCain to get enough electoral votes to win the election.
McCain holding onto tenuous lead in Florida
Things seem to have tightened a bit in Florida as well. McCain has had a steady lead in that state, but it’s down to an average of less than two points, which is well within the range of error. I still don’t expect Obama to win Florida, but if he can keep it tight and force the McCain campaign to spend money and time there, that’s a plus for the Democrat.
Obama staking claims in Colorado, New Mexico
Obama also seems to have solidified Colorado. The last four polls, all taken within the last six days, show him with leads of 4, 3, 9, and 7 points, respectively. The same is true of New Mexico, where the last three polls show leads of 11, 8 and 7 points, respectively.
Reading the tea leaves: a close, close finish
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and make a prediction. This is with the caveat that much can change between now and November 4.
Obama wins Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire. McCain manages to hold on to Ohio, Florida and Virginia.
But, flipping Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado into the blue column proves enough for Obama to wins the majority of electoral college votes in November by the slimmest of margins — 273 to 265.
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