Poll: Snyder would lose to Bernero today

The policies advocated by Gov. Rick Snyder in his first three months in office have been so unpopular that if the election were held today, a new poll shows that he would lose to Virg Bernero rather than win the landslide he did last November.

The new poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows a remarkable turnaround in voter opinion in a very short period of time:

Rick Snyder trounced Democrat Virg Bernero last November to take Michigan’s governorship, but if voters could do it over right now, they would narrowly elect Bernero instead. Snyder has gotten less attention for it than neighboring Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, but has also proposed weakening the collective bargaining rights of public employees, among other measures that are proving very unpopular.

Snyder was one of the most popular candidates anywhere in the country last year, measuring a 43-28 favorability rating in a September PPP poll, the exact opposite of Bernero’s standing with likely voters. But Snyder is now little more popular than exgovernor Jennifer Granholm. In a December PPP poll, only 34% of voters approved of Granholm’s performance, and 57% disapproved. Snyder almost matches that, with a 33-50 spread. 20% of his own voters and 44% of independents disapprove, and more Democrats (80%) disapprove than Republicans approve (68%).

Bernero would edge out Snyder, 47-45, if voters could choose their governor again. Snyder beat Bernero by 18 points, and the fact that this poll’s respondents reported voting for him by a third of that margin reflects how large the 2010 electorate’s pro-Republican enthusiasm gap was in a state that normally favors Democrats. On top of the swing in
turnout between November and now, Bernero has still flipped voters toward him by eight points because 9% of Snyder’s backers would now vote the other way, while only 3% of Bernero’s voters defect.

By a 49-38 margin, voters do not support recalling Snyder, however. The poll also shows strong support for the collective bargaining rights of public employees, 59-32, and support for a constitutional amendment guaranteeing that right, 49-37.

On the specific issue of whether emergency managers should be allowed to void union contracts, voters overwhelmingly reject that authority by a 50-32 margin.