WWRD? (What would Rove do?)

Outcome of Michigan's 2008 Republican presidential primary (source: Google Maps)

Remember this map? We displayed it following the Michigan primary in January this year; it reflects the portions of the state won by respective Republican candidates. You’ll note that the eastern portion of the state, which is more closely aligned with the automotive industry and is both more urban and trends more Democratic, went for Mitt Romney. The western side of the state, which is more rural and more conservative both in its religion and ideology, went for John McCain.

In short, the western side of the state went for a more secular corporatist candidate over a moderate Mormon candidate — and neither side went for the more fundamentalist Mike Huckabee.

After McCain’s mid-August campaign visit to Michigan, there was a hullabaloo between social conservatives and the McCain camp; a number of the social conservatives demanded that Huckabee be offered the vice president slot or be given a prominent role at the Republican convention, or risk losing their vote. There was no published response from the McCain campaign if any was offered in response to this demand. Until Aug. 29, the names of a handful of vice presidential candidates were bandied about, none of them being Huckabee.

McCain announced a little-known governor with socially conservative, anti-abortion credentials on Aug. 29 as the GOP’s vice presidential candidate.

Since Michigan’s social conservatives made their demands last month, there have been attack ads run by the McCain campaign in Michigan, of which a large number were played in western Michigan.

Why would the McCain campaign feel a need to run attack ads in the same area that McCain won in January?

And why would the McCain campaign pick a relative unknown with strong anti-choice cred?

Perhaps the better question to ask is, “What would Rove do?” if the popular Republican strategist were counseling McCain, and felt he wasn’t going to win over voters who liked the more moderate Romney in favor of McCain (since they clearly didn’t like McCain in January). What would Rove do if the social conservatives who held the Republican Party hostage were located not in the counties that went for McCain but in counties that went for Romney in the primary?

If I were Rove, I’d throw some red meat to the social conservatives to retain their vote; without them on board, the Republican Party cannot win. And if I were Rove, I wouldn’t give them exactly what they asked for; they’d come to expect this every time they made demands of the party. If I were Rove, I’d pick somebody who might also bring over a group that was on the fence — perhaps moderate female voters — to ensure not only the base came out to vote Republican, but a few extras.

And if I were Rove, being Machiavellian, I’d also pick somebody who would be pliable, manipulable and the perfect tool for whatever I might have been trying to get away with these last eight years. Somebody that could be thrown under the bus at a moment’s notice, like Harriet Miers or Alberto Gonzales, or Monica Goodling…