After the massive surge of new voters that flooded the polls in 2008 to elect Barack Obama president, it appears that 2010 is going to return to the historical pattern of low turnout during midterm elections — and this is very bad news for Democrats at a time when the Republican base is highly energized and likely to turn out in higher numbers than usual. The Detroit Free Press reports:
Election 2010 is shaping up to be a much more normal undertaking, which is to say, a low-turnout, off-year election. Election analysts say 1.5 million or more of those 2008 voters — predominantly young people, minorities and unmarried women — aren’t likely to help decide who runs Michigan for the next four years. That spells trouble for Democrats.
EPIC/MRA pollster Bernie Porn says Michigan Democrats need at least 500,000 of the 2008 surge voters back to keep a bad year from turning into a disaster.
“A lot of them never voted or participated in politics” before 2008, he said. “Trying to get them out again is going to be hard.”
Poll after poll shows Republicans and independents being far more energized and more likely to vote this year than Democrats. Progress Michigan is working hard to connect with those voters and urge them to vote; whether they succeed or not may very well determine the outcome of many key elections.