With redistricting on the horizon, some see Supreme Court race as key

Last week’s unexpected resignation by Justice Elizabeth Weaver, a Republican, and subsequent replacement by Justice Alton Thomas Davis, a Democrat, may not only reshape the Michigan Supreme Court, it could change the entire electoral map of the state for the next ten years.

Next year when the 2010 census data is released Michigan’s political boundaries will be redrawn by the legislature, and if they cannot agree on the redistricting map then the state Supreme Court will take up the matter. Because the shape of districts has an enormous effect on who can get elected, observers are already speculating on what last week’s abrupt resignation might mean for that process.

Bob LaBrant of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce told columnist Peter Luke that the change on the court “puts the Democrats in the driver’s seat as far as redistricting is concerned. (Weaver) would have been a question mark, but that question mark has been removed.”

The term that Davis was appointed to fill only runs through this year, but he has already been nominated for reelection by the Democrats, and he will have an advantage over others because he will be designated on the ballot as an incumbent.

But Richard McLelland is a Michigan State University professor of public relations and practicing attorney with expertise in government ethics, lobbying regulation and campaign finance issues, tells the Michigan Messenger that Granholm’s appointment of Davis was dirty dealing that may damage Davis’ candidacy this fall.

“It was clearly an arranged deal between former Justice Weaver and the governor and possibly the trial lawyers because of the benefits or the perceived benefits of the incumbency designation,“ McLelland said. “I think it will blow up in their faces because it links Justice Davis to the failed administration of Gov. Granholm. I think it will change the campaign substantially in this election. I think that voting public will react negatively to these kinds of deals.”

“Obviously the biggest impact [of a realigned court] will be reapportionment. However,” he said, “the Republicans had the advantage last time and it didn’t help them even though it was gerrymandered to help them.”

Republicans controlled both chambers of the Legislature and the state’s highest court last time the lines were redrawn in 2001 and it did have impact on the Congressional delegation. In 2002 the balance tilted from 9-7 in favor of the Democrats to 9-6 in favor of the Republicans. Democratic incumbents Lynn Rivers and John Dingell were pushed into the same district and the Republican hold was strengthened in others.

The reapportionment plan, however, was not enough to prevent the Democrats from retaking the state House in 2006 and regaining a majority of Michigan Congressional districts in 2008.

Peter Bratt, an urban planner and political mapper with a focus on Michigan, said he thinks the state supreme court could play an important role in the remaking of Michigan’s political map this time around.

Declining population in the Detroit metro area means Michigan is likely to lose another congressional district, he said, and the seat that is most in trouble is Republican Thaddeus McCotter’s in the 11th district, which is composed of parts of Wayne and Oakland counties.

“This has always been one the Democrats should have controlled in the past and if they control the process they will look to cut him out.”

Bratt has experimented with different ways of drawing Michigan’s congressional districts currently held by eight Democrats and seven Republicans. Bratt has a design that he says could reshape it as a 10-4 Democratic map.

“A similarly creative Republican could design a map with a very different outcome,” he said.

Mark Grebner, Democrat Ingham County Commissioner and founder ofPractical Political Consulting said that the redistricting process is actually becoming more and more fair and orderly and that he does not expect the party affiliation of State Supreme Court justices to make much difference in the process.

“The justices are not really partisan hacks,” he said, “The Republicans are more like bitter partisans and the Democrats are all liberals but they certainly don’t love [Michigan Democratic Party leader] Mark Brewer.”

Grebner said that the rules for how districts are drawn in Michigan are now a matter of statutory law and that whoever controls that Legislature will have to put together a plan within those rules.

“The rules are a little ambiguous here and there,” he said, and whoever controls the process will try to eke out some advantage, “but the rules don’t allow you all that much wiggle room.”

“If they go far enough that someone can bring a lawsuit, he said, “I’m sure that the [state supreme court] would still apply rules.”

There are more different ways to draw Congressional districts than state legislative districts, he said, but disputes over Congressional districts are generally fought out in federal rather than state court.

The chief judge of U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th District is Alice M. Batchelder. She was appointed by President George W. Bush.

Under state law Michigan’s redistricting plans must be adopted by Nov. 11. 2011.

Democrats have nominated Justice Davis and Oakland County Circuit Court Judge Denise Langford Morris to the state Supreme Court. Republicans nominated Justice Robert Young and Wayne County Circuit Court Judge Mary Beth Kelly.