A new Epic/MRA poll shows Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero leading House Speaker Andy Dillon for the first time in their battle for the Democratic nomination for governor. In one month, the same poll shows Bernero going from a 12 point deficit to an 8 point lead over rival Dillon.
The latest poll results show Bernero at 40 percent and Dillon at 32 percent, with 28 percent still undecided.
That undecided vote is crucial. The number of undecideds began at over 70 percent when both candidates first entered the race as polls showed Democratic voters had very little recognition of either name or their records and positions. As those undecideds have gotten to know the two candidates, Bernero appears to have picked up strength.
This is not a surprise. Bernero is much more of a traditional Democrat than Dillon, who is regarded by many party activists as a Republican in Dem clothing. Dillon has infuriated most of the traditional Democratic constituencies, especially unions and women’s groups.
A poll a few weeks ago that showed Dillon leading also found that if you informed the respondents that Bernero is pro-choice on abortion while Dillon is anti-choice — which is true — the results reversed themselves and Bernero was leading. That clearly meant that if Bernero could get the word out to party voters on that one issue alone, he could win the race.
Over the last couple weeks of the campaign the state’s three largest unions — the AFL/CIO, UAW, and MEA — joined forces to put $2 million into third party ads favoring Bernero, hoping to overcome that name recognition gap. It appears to be working. On Tuesday we’ll know for sure.