Weaver gets good odds for Supreme Court run

Michigan Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Weaver — a moderate Republican from the Traverse City area and member of the court since 1994 — has decided to run for reelection without seeking a nomination from the Republican Party.

The cost of state supreme court campaigns is high — around $7 million was spent on the race in 2008 — but many political observers say they believe that Weaver will be able to win even without party affiliation or the fundraising ability that usually comes with it.

Her move comes amidst bitter fighting between her and her fellow Republicans, Justices Maura Corrigan, Robert Young and Stephen Markman who often vote as a conservative block. With three Democrats on the court, Weaver, has become a decisive swing vote, to the apparent resentment of her Republican colleagues.

The feud between the courts more conservative justices grew so strong this year that Justice Robert Young — who is also up for reelection this year — declared that the Republican party could nominate either him or Weaver, but not both.

Michigan is one of few states where state supreme court justices are elected in non-partisan races but the political parties select candidates by nominating them at their summer conventions.

On the ballot no party designation appears next to a candidates name. The ballot only indicates whether a candidate is an incumbent.

Weaver said that she doesn’t need any party affiliation.

In a phone interview last week she said that the high court is spilt along ideological lines, that the system of electing judges needs an overhaul and that common sense, independent thinking and transparency are desperately needed on the court.

She also said that she hopes to advance a reform agenda with her campaign.

Weaver said that she thinks Michigan needs to elect judges by district. “It concerns me that six of seven judges are from east of Lansing,” she said, “Of seven three live in in Grosse Point Park.”

Weaver said that she would also like to see an end to party nominations for supreme court justices, term limits, and stricter rules for disclosure in campaign finance reporting.

So far she hasn’t raised any money, but she’s not worried about that. “I’m not taking funds right now because I am busy with my regular work. I will turn my attention to this in August,” she said.

“I don’t need funds right now. I sent my money in to get on the ballot, I have my website, I already have bumper stickers, yard signs, and stationary from last time. There are many people who want to support me.”

Journalist and political commentator Jack Lessenberry said he believes that Weaver’s chances are good.

“[S]he’s likely to win,” he writes unless the GOP spends millions to discredit her. Odds are also strong that the Democrats won’t nominate anyone to run against Justice Weaver. They will concentrate their fire on trying to beat Justice Robert Young, Jr.”

Mark Grebner founder of Practical Political Consulting, Inc., and a Democrat on the Ingham County Commission, said that the fact that Weaver is running without the endorsement of the Republican party will affect the entire campaign.

Unlike Lessenberry, Grebner is guessing that the Democrats will nominate someone to run against Weaver and that the Republicans will also nominate two candidates. But he also thinks the Republicans will focus on trying to protect Young rather than focus on defeating Weaver.

“The incumbency designation is the only reason she is likely to win,” he said. “It’s tremendously powerful in attracting votes.”

Richard McLellan is a Michigan State University professor of public relations and practicing attorney with expertise in government ethics, lobbying regulation and campaign finance issues. In 1990 he argued Austin v. Michigan Chamber, the First Amendment challenge to prohibition on corporate political speech, before the U.S. Supreme Court.

McLellan said that Weaver is “likely to prevail” and that her unaffiliated candidacy creates challenges for the Republican nominees who may have trouble beating her because she has a Republican political base.

If the Democrats nominate two candidates and the Republicans nominate two there will be five people up for two seats plus the candidate from the minor parties.

McLellan said that he believes that on a crowded ballot incumbent candidates have an even stronger than usual advantage.

Still, incumbency does not assure victory.

“People used to say that the incumbent designation is was extremely valuable,“ he said. “But that didn’t hold true for Cliff Taylor.”

Taylor was defeated in 2008 by Democrat Diane Marie Hathaway. It was the first time an incumbent was unseated by a newcomer in the history of the court.

An independent run will involve challenges for Weaver, Rich Robinson of the Michigan Campaign Finance Network said.

It could be harder for her to raise money, he said, and she may find herself the target of TV attack ads, something she has not had to face in previous elections.

“It will be harder for her to hold her seat without party affiliation,” Robinson said. “However, she remains true to herself. Her personal credo is, ‘Do right and fear not.’”

Wayne County Circuit Court Judge Mary Beth Kelly and Michigan Court of Appeals Judge Jane Markey are seeking nominations from the Republican party in this race.

Wayne County Circuit Court judges Deborah Thomas and Robert Columbo and Oakland County Circuit Judge Denise Langford Morris seek the Democratic party nomination.