News that the Gallup daily tracking poll shows John McCain with a 3-point lead over Barack Obama nationally may make Obama supporters panic. Relax, folks. This is almost entirely meaningless at this point for two main reasons:
First, because it’s a national poll and national polls just don’t matter much. Our elections are decided by the electoral college, not by national referendum. It is the state-by-state polls that matter as an indicator of what will happen on election day.
Second, because even if national polls did matter, this is a normal post-convention bounce that won’t last. Obama got his bounce last week, when the same Gallup tracking poll showed him with a 7-point lead. That should tell you how shallow such a swing is and why it is entirely transient.
As I said in my poll update a couple of weeks ago, we really won’t have a clear picture of where public opinion is until mid-September. By the start of next week, we should have a fresh round of state polling data that will take into account both conventions and the entry of Sarah Palin into the race. Until then, there is no need for anyone to be concerned.