No clear leader in Republican bid for Secretary of State

Michigan Democrats settled on election law expert and voting rights activist Jocelyn Benson as their candidate for Secretary of State back in April, but the Republican field of candidates remains crowded with no definite front runner, race watchers say.

The Republican candidates are State Sen. Michelle McManus of Lake Leelanau; State Senator Cameron Brown of Fawn River Township; Calhoun County Clerk Anne Norlander; Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson; and State Rep. Paul Scott of Grand Blanc.

A late March poll by Capital Caucus, a bipartisan group of Lansing Insiders, gave McManus a lead over the other candidates.

Based on a 100 point scale the group gave McManus a 35, followed by Cameron Brown with 29, Anne Norlander with 18, Ruth Johnson with 15 and Paul Scott with 10. This poll was conducted before Johnson officially joined the race. But that poll was just insiders making a prediction, not a survey of the public.

Term-limited Sen. Michelle McManus was among the first of the Republicans to declare and as of the most recent campaign finance reports had raised more than $100,000, far more than any of her Republican competitors. McManus has campaigned on her conservative social values and her electability as a person with a well known name in state politics.

Calhoun County Clerk Anne Norlander has stressed her administrative experience, stating that her 21 years in office as clerk has prepared her for duty as the state’s top election administrator.

State Sen. Cameron Brown has made the news lately with an effort to reduce the financial burden of the “Driver Responsibility Fees” that the state requires from people charged with driving offenses.

State Rep. Paul Scott has said that as Secretary of State he would make sure that transgender people are not allowed to change their gender identification on their driver’s licenses.

Oakland County clerk Ruth Johnson, who entered the race in late April, is a former county commissioner and state representative and was Dick DeVos‘ running mate in an unsuccessful 2006 campaign against Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

The Republican candidate for Secretary of State will be nominated by delegates at the state party convention in August. At this stage of the campaign the candidates are trying to get exposure among likely delegates to the convention. Delegates are volunteer party activists and are thought to be more conservative than Republican voters as a whole.

To appeal to these delegates the Secretary of State candidates have devoted much attention to issues, like gun rights and abortion, that have virtually nothing to do with the Secretary of State job.

At a Secretary of State candidates forum at the Gerald Ford Women’s Club in March, McManus, Scott, Norlander, and Cameron all focused on voter fraud — a problem that does not exist in Michigan according to the state’s county election officials and even the office of outgoing Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

“Fact is, I don’t think anybody has a clue right now who’s in the lead,” editor of Inside Michigan Politics and former Republican State Senator Bill Ballenger said in an e-mail interview. “It’s almost certain nobody has a MAJORITY of the delegates committed to her (or him). Remember, a convention isn’t like a primary — a plurality doesn’t win the nomination. They keep voting (dropping the low finisher on each round of balloting) until somebody gets a majority.”

In messages to supporters Michelle McManus has boasted that she is the frontrunner in the race. Ballenger said that McManus might be correct now that she’s got more delegates pledged to her than anyone else, but if she’s not the second or third choice of a lot of other delegates, she still may not win.

Plus, because the delegates to the convention haven’t even been selected yet, he pointed out, candidates cannot be sure that they are winning support form the people who will actually nominate a candidate.

Democrat Jocelyn Benson has raised more than $100,000 and has the support of the Secretary of State Project, a national political action committee focused on supporting Democrats get elected to that office in key states.

“It’s impossible to say at this point who would be the strongest candidate against Benson,” Ballenger said, “but probably someone with ‘hands-on’ experience in an SoS-type job like Johnson or Norlander.”

Dennis Cawthorne, a lawyer and lobbyist with the firm Kelley Cawthorne, is a former a Republican member of the Michigan House and Past Chairman of the Michigan Republican State Convention.

Cawthorne says he is watching the Sec. of State race closely and he too said that Johnson should not be discounted as a contender for the nomination.

“This remains a wide open race,“ he said. “I think some people have viewed McManus as being in the strongest position. There also seems to be some perception that the race is becoming increasingly wide open for any of the others to win. Ruth Johnson’s late entry creates some suspense.”

Cawthorne said that sometimes the winner of the Republican nomination for governor decides to weigh in on who should be nominated as Secretary of State and that this can have a major impact on that race.

The Republican gubernatorial candidate will be looking to create a strong and balanced ticket, he said, and the party will want to have at least one or two females in top positions.

“If Cox or Bouchard win the primary they may prefer someone from upstate Michigan where Hoekstra may prefer someone from the metro area.”