Battle to replace Stupak could be bellwether race

With an open seat in a vast district where Democrats and Republicans are fairly evenly matched, the Congressional election in Michigan’s district 1 has been labeled a “toss up” and one where tea party activists and independents could play a decisive role.

This spring, facing criticism from both the left and right over his obstruction of, and then support for, federal health care reform, nine-term Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak of Menominee announced that he would not seek reelection from Michigan’s 1st District.

At that point he was facing a Democratic challenger in the primary. Connie Saltonstall of Charlevoix drew national attention, and some quick campaign funds when she challenged Stupak for focusing on enacting abortion restrictions during efforts to enact health care reform, but later withdrew from the race.

District 1 is one of the largest in the country, and includes most of the northern third of the Lower Peninsula and the entire Upper Peninsula. The district voted for Bush in 2000 and in 2004 but supported Obama by a small margin in 2008.

Six Republicans are competing for their party’s nomination in the August 3 primary.

The candidates are: Dr. Dan Benishek of Crystal Falls, Linda Goldthorpe of Curtis, Don Hooper of Iron River, Tom Stillings of Torch Lake who calls himself “THE Tea Party Republican“, Patrick Donlon of St. Ignace and State Sen. Jason Allen of Alanson.

Until Jason Allen joined the race in April, Benishek was seen as the clear front runner. Benishek is the only remaining candidate that has filed campaign finance information with the Federal Elections Commission. According to his filings, he had $144,565 on hand at the end of the first quarter.

The field of Democrats has narrowed to just one candidate, farmer and term-limited state Rep. Gary McDowell of Rudyard, whose district includes a large chunk of Dist. 1. Saltonstall dropped out in May, saying that the state Democratic Party had decided it would only get behind a candidate that opposed abortion.

All of the remaining candidates say they support gun rights and oppose abortion, and for those on the Republican side reducing government spending and repealing health care reform are top priorities.

Among Republicans Allen, Benishek and Stillings are seen as the top contenders.

State Sen. Jason Allen’s district covers most of the area within District 1, and he has the strongest name recognition, especially in the Lower Peninsula portion of the District.

Allen has been criticized as a carpetbagger — he moved into District 1 immediately before filing as a candidate — a career politician, and even a union lackey by his fellow Republican candidates, several of whom are courting votes among attendees of tea party protest events.

Allen’s spokesman says he’s not ideologically much different from the tea partiers and supports the constitution and reductions in government spending.

But on social issues tea party types can be libertarian — which Allen is not — and the tea party attendees are not a coherent group.

The Mackinac Center for Public Policy criticized Allen as “a leading promoter of a massive expansion in Michigan’s corporate welfare empire,” and touched off a wave of criticism by publicizing concerns that legislation authored by Allen could help SEIU — one of the right’s favorite whipping boys — and their campaign to organize home health care workers.

Opponents latched on, calling Allen a union lackey and pointing out that he had received a $2,000 contribution from the SEIU.

Allen Campaign spokesman Jeremy Hendges points out that Allen has modified the bill to make clear that it should not affect union matters. Allen has received high marks from the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, Hendges said, and he is not known as a favorite of unions.

The episode demonstrates the hazards of incumbency in this year’s election.

Allen, who is term limited after six years in the state Senate, also served the maximum six years in the state House — longer than Democrat Gary McDowell, the only other candidate in the race with previous legislative experience.

Benishek is quick to exploit the current anti-incumbent mood by pointing out Allen’s long record in Lansing and many state party connections.

“I think people are ready for a change, they are not ready to have the people in Lansing promoted over to Washington,“ he said. “Lets face it. Lansing has failed Michigan too. People are ready to get rid of all the politicians and put some people fresh to government in there, not career politicians that have been doing business the old fashioned way.”

Bill Ballenger, former Republican state senator and editor of Inside Michigan Politics said that while Jason Allen is the clear favorite among Republicans at this point, if one of the candidates from the Upper Peninsula, most likely Beneshek, can consolidate support there and among Tea Partiers, he would have a chance to win the nomination.

It’s unclear how such a candidate would fare in a general election against Gary McDowell who is, like Stupak, a socially conservative U.P. Democrat.

Unemployment ranges as high as 20 percent in parts of District 1, making local fundraising difficult for all candidates. So far no candidate has announced the support of any major national organization, however with six candidates vying for the Republican nomination, a late primary season injection of cash from out of district could be a deciding factor.

At this point, political observers say this race could hardly be closer. CQ Politics calls the race a “toss up” but says that Democrats will have to “work a lot harder if they’re going to hold the seat in this rural swing district, which in 2008 went for Democrat Barack Obama but in two previous White House elections gave bigger margins to Republican George W. Bush.”

The Rothenberg Political Report rates the district a “pure toss up” but says that “in this political climate, Republicans may have the slight edge.”