Health care reform could raise state Medicaid costs significantly

Stateline.org has an article about a new study that suggests that the health care reform bill that passed recently could increase Medicaid costs for the states because enrollment rates could be far higher than predicted by the Congressional Budget Office.

Up to now, the most-often cited estimate came from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Across the country, the CBO expects 16 million new Medicaid and children’s health insurance enrollees, a number it estimates would cost the states a total of $20 billion to cover between 2014 and 2019.

But a report released yesterday shows state Medicaid costs could increase by more than twice that amount — to $43 billion — thanks to enrollment that could far exceed CBO estimates. The higher figure, from the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, is based on the prospect of as many as 23 million people enrolling in Medicaid.

This could potentially crush Michigan’s fragile budget over the next few years if it’s true, unless the federal government significantly increases aid to the states.