Handicapping the Democratic race for governor

The year did not start well for Michigan Democrats in their race to retain the governor’s office, with Lt. Gov John Cherry — the presumptive nominee — announcing he would end his campaign before it really got started. What ensued was a virtual cavalcade of potential candidates running trial flags up the pole.

From pundits floating names, to candidates getting in, then out, to flirtations from others, the theme was disarray. But now, with Andy Dillon’s announcement over the weekend that he was in the race for the Gov’s office, the field seems to have stabilized at a final four candidates.

The group includes Andy Dillon, a Redford Township Democrat and current Speaker of the Michigan House; State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith from Washtenaw County’s Salem Township; Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero and former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee. And with that field finally set, attention turns to the inevitable question: Who’s going to win?

It’s probably a little early to take the polls too seriously, especially with so many people still undecided and even unaware of who the candidates are, but they can at least tell us which candidates have a head start and which are fighting an uphill battle.

A recent poll from EPIC-MRA — the first such poll to include all four of the candidates in the questions — found Dillon in the lead with 17 percent, Kildee at 12 percent and Bernero at 8 percent.

But perhaps the most important finding of that poll was that most voters, even Democrats, didn’t know who the candidates were. Even the leader, Dillon, was unknown to 66 percent of respondents. 72 percent didn’t recognize Kildee’s name and 82 percent didn’t know who Bernero is.

That could be both a blessing and a curse. Name recognition is important, of course, but most people are just beginning to pay attention to the next election and that provides an opportunity for all of these candidates to make a strong first impression on voters.

Since only political junkies and insiders know much about the candidates, perhaps those are the people to turn to in handicapping the race for the nomination.

In a poll of those insiders, the Capital Caucus reports that Dillon’s chances were pegged at 38 on a 100-point scale, while Bernero’s likelihood of capturing the nomination was rated at 37 — up eight points since early February. Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee isn’t being dismissed, coming in at 26 on the 100-point thermometer. State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith barely registered, coming in with less than “someone not listed.”

Aside from the political insiders, pundits who have been watching the careers of the candidates are also evaluating their electoral chances.

MLive.com reporter Peter Luke believes that Dillon has a difficult road for the nomination because he’s the very definition of the “establishment” — he’s been one of the three primary power brokers in Lansing through years of budget trouble — at a time when voters are feeling strongly anti-establishment.

“Everyone campaigning for governor this year is running against the place they are seeking to govern,” Luke wrote. “Except Democratic House Speaker Andy Dillon, that is, who really can’t.”

Noting that Dillon was one of the key people responsible for last year’s budget, which made deep and unpopular cuts to K-12 education funding and revenue sharing, most of which goes to fire and police protection — and that he now has the task of putting together yet another budget with an expected $1.8 billion deficit — Luke said Dillon faces “a five-month obstacle course that requires appealing to core Democratic voters while producing a budget that doesn’t assault their values.”

One advantage Dillon does have, Luke notes, is fundraising. Dillon says he has already raised more than a million dollars for his campaign, something that will be difficult to match in a short period of time.

The chances of Dillon’s two main challengers, Kildee and Bernero, seem to rest primarily on which one can attract the support and the money from traditional Democratic groups.

Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, thinks Kildee is a very strong candidate, recently telling the Flint Journal he believed Kildee was “the favorite right now.”

Joe DiSano, a Democratic political consultant, told the Michigan Messenger that this primary is going to come down to a Dillon versus Bernero battle. The other two candidates, DiSano said, will fade. He said while Smith could be an excellent candidate, it “remains to be seen if she can get on the ballot.” Kildee, he said, will “fade” once labor endorsements come out. He said he expects labor to endorse Bernero.

“I think it’s going to be passion versus cool detachment,” said DiSano. “I think it’s going to be the politics of anger and disgust with the status quo versus Mr. Insider.”

The politics of passion is DiSano’s moniker for Bernero, a man known for being outspoken and fiery, while Dillon gets the name Mr. Insider.

And DiSano said that while Dillon will raise more money, he’ll need to do so to make up for the lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy among volunteers and party activists.

“Dillon is going to have to pay for the grass roots and field organization because there is absolutely zero enthusiasm for him among Democratic volunteers. The people who man your campaign office, the people who lick the stamps, the people who go door-to-door — none of those people have any passion for Dillon. So he’s going to have to pay through the nose to create that kind of organization,” DiSano said.

“I actually think the timing is right for a populist Democratic campaign that’s not tied to the current mess in Lansing,” DiSano said. “I think the candidate for that — the candidate that can best take advantage of that anger, that populist anger — is Virg Bernero.”

DiSano said the Lansing mayor has done well in aligning himself with that populist anger already, particularly during the auto bailout crisis last year, but that this passion could also turn on him. Bernero, he said, is a “polarizing” figure. Bernero is widely known to drop f-bombs on the media regularly, as well as to cut off reporters who write things he dislikes.

“I think his passion and his fire-in-the-belly can be his greatest ally, but it’s also an Achille’s heel,” DiSano said. “If he can temper those passions, I think there’s every chance he can be governor.”

Asked to make the case for their own chances, the candidates had a range of answers.

“What I believe is that the voters out there want someone that will demonstrate they will reach across the aisle and get a deal done and that will even stand up against the special interests within their own party if that’s the right thing to do,” Dillon told the Michigan Messenger. “They’re thinking, ‘Andy, we want the state to work, we want to turn it around.’ And I think I present that alternative to them. We’ll see what they do in August.”

Kildee, for his part, tells Michigan Messenger he thinks he will have a broad appeal. “I am a candidate who represents really a broad spectrum of interests,” he said. “I have a long and good record with organized labor.”

Wheeler Smith dismisses her lack of fundraising power, noting that any Democrat is going to have issues raising money this election because of the recession. Then she touts her experience as the reason she is the right person for the job of governor.

“I am as viable as any Democrat out there and probably more so,” she told Michigan Messenger. “I am the most knowledgeable and experienced on the issues.”

Bernero did not return calls seeking comment.