Perhaps demonstrating the power of widely seen campaign commercials, venture capitalist Rick Snyder is making his move in the campaign for the Republican nomination for governor and is now in third place according to a new Epic/MRA poll of 400 Republican and 400 Democratic voters. The Detroit Free Press reports:
The poll also shows U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra has moved into a lead against Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, getting 27 percent support to Cox’s 21 percent. Snyder is now in third place with 12 percent, a significant jump from his 3 percent ratings just a few weeks ago.
Between the two polls, Snyder unveiled his “one tough nerd” campaign slogan and took out an extremely expensive ad with that slogan on state television stations during the Super Bowl. And clearly that campaign is having an effect, pushing his name recognition and public support much higher in a very short period of time.
Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, on the other hand, dropped from 13 percent to 10 percent in the two most recent Epic/MRA polls.
On the Democratic side, this is the first poll to include everyone that appears to be in the field — Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon, state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith and leader of the Genesee County Land Bank Dan Kildee. Dillon leads that group with 17 percent, Kildee is at 12 percent and Bernero at 8 percent. But here’s both the problem and the opportunity for the Democratic candidates:
Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Democrats is that most Michigan voters don’t know who they are: 66% of the 600-person sample didn’t recognize Dillon of Redford Township; Kildee was unknown to 72% of the respondents; Bernero was unknown to 82%.
That’s a problem, obviously, but it also offers a chance for each of them to make a strong first impression on Democratic voters over the next few weeks. I would expect major movement in the polls on the Democratic side through the spring as voters get to know who those candidates are.
The poll also found that the top Republican candidates fare better in a battle with the top Democratic candidates, but that could also change significantly as voters get to know the Democrats in the race.