Anti-choice candidates may shake up Democratic primary for governor

As Michigan’s wide-open governor’s race begins to take shape, upheaval among the Democrats is especially pronounced.

Two of the three biggest targets of speculation by political handicappers to date are both moderate anti-abortion Democrats: state House Speaker Andy Dillon of Redford Township and U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak of Menominee. That makes them minorities in the state’s majority and largely pro-choice Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the third candidate generating buzz is businesswoman Denise Ilitch, a member of one of the state’s wealthiest families and a recently-reported supporter of abortion rights.

Democratic state House Speaker Andy Dillon may be "ideally positioned" for the general election, but what about the primary?

Given that emerging lineup, Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, gives an early edge to Dillon – if he can get through a primary.

“I think Dillon is ideally positioned,” Ballenger said in a recent interview. “He’s not only a Democrat in a Democratic state, but he has an ability on certain issues to appeal to independents and even to Republicans and certainly to conservative Democrats.”

Yet Dillon’s well-publicized battles with organized labor, among other traditional progressive constituencies, presents a major challenge before he’d ever get a chance to appeal to those independent or conservative-leaning voters.

“If Dillon could get through the Democratic primary, I think he’d be a formidable, general election candidate in a normal year,” Ballenger added with two conditions clearly stated.

On the other hand, East Lansing-based Democratic political consultant Mark Grebner argues that the current speculation over both Dillon and Stupak will mostly serve to create an opening for a pro-choice Democrat considering the race besides the untested Ilitch.

“It creates an opening for a pro-choice candidate to get instant traction,” he said. “In this case, it might suddenly make [Lansing Mayor] Virg [Bernero] much more credible.”

Grebner goes on to say he doesn’t think Dillon or Stupak’s gubernatorial aspirations are equally doomed, even in a Democratic primary dominated by progressive pro-choice voters.

“They’re very different candidates,” he said, noting that Stupak may only have a chance to pull out an August primary victory in a crowded field of candidates. “Maybe a seven way race, maybe then he could make it work,” Grebner said.

That’s different from what Stupak has said publicly, suggesting that he’d prefer to run in less crowded primary or even have party leaders “coalesce” around one chosen candidate such as himself.

Dillon, on the other hand, could fare better because opposing abortion rights is not his “signature issue” as one recent news report put it. “He’s also a policy wonk,” Grebner added.

Meanwhile, the often emotional politics of abortion will play out this year in politically bipolar Michigan — majority Democratic by many measures, but also majority anti-abortion by others.

Larry Galmish, Right to Life Michigan’s PAC director, says he believes abortion rights advocates are largely outnumbered among state lawmakers.

Among the state Senate’s 38 members, Galmish counts 25 as reliably anti-abortion; among the state House’s 110 members, he counts “anywhere from 60 to 65.”

“We do have majorities in both, and we also have the secretary of state, and the attorney general,” Galmish added, referring to other anti-abortion elected officials. “We’d like to keep all those and elect a pro-life governor,” he added.

Both Grebner and Ballenger described Michigan’s Republican Party as “monolithically pro-life.”

Ballenger went on to point out that since Michigan has had a pro-choice but term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm at the helm for the past eight years, that’s mostly resulted in a predictable mathematical gridlock over abortion.

“You really have pro-life majorities in both the House and the Senate, but you do not have two-thirds pro-life majorities,” he said, noting the super-majority needed to sustain a gubernatorial veto.

But Ballenger stresses that abortion is not likely to play a major role in this year’s governor’s race for one simple reason: the economy.

“I tend to think social issues are going to be less important in this election than economic issues simply because of the dire straits in which the state finds itself and the terrible condition of the state budget,” he said. “Fighting these constant battles on how to raise enough revenue to fund the programs that the state has been committed to, I just think that’s going to overwhelm the social or cultural issues.”