Obama gains in Nevada, draws even in Florida

Michigan August poll results (source: RealClearPolitics.com)

Last week we noted that things had started to tighten up a bit in some key swing states as McCain gained ground on Obama in the state polls.

In the most recent polls, taken immediately before or during the first day or two of the Democratic National Convention and concluding two days before Obama’s acceptance speech Thursday night at Invesco Field in Denver,  we begin to see indications of a slight bounce .

Florida

In Florida, for instance, the most recent poll was taken on 8/25 and 8/26 — the first two days of the DNC — and was the first in quite some time to show Obama with a lead in that state — by a single point. The seven most recent polls prior had shown a lead for McCain ranging from 2 to 7 points.

New Mexico

In New Mexico, the most recent poll was taken 8/24-8/26 and showed Obama with a 13-point lead, much larger than the last few polls that showed Obama with an average lead of 4.3 points. The one caveat on that poll was that it was of registered voters rather than likely voters.

Colorado

In Colorado, a poll of likely voters taken from 8/21-8/24, just before the convention started, showed Obama with a 5-point lead. The polls in that state have really swung back and forth over the last few weeks.

Nevada

In Nevada, the last two polls taken — one just prior to the convention and one during its first two days — show Obama with a 1-point and a 5-point lead respectively. That reverses the trend earlier in the month in favor of McCain.

I would expect the new polls taken over the next few days to show more of a trend toward Obama as he gets the traditional post-convention bounce.

Too soon to tell

But with the Republican National Convention coming so soon, that bounce may be short lived as the dynamic swings right back in the other direction.

The reality is that we won’t have an accurate picture of where public opinion is on these two candidates until mid-September. That’s when the respective bounces have worked their way through the system and settled back down.