Bernero recruitment shows Democratic doubts in outlook for 2010

LANSING — With the hoopla surrounding Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero’s announcement late last month that he was considering a run for the state’s highest office, very little attention has been paid to the fact that the White House and the Democratic National Committee have been involved in recruiting the mayor.

Bernero confirmed to Michigan Messenger on Dec. 1 that DNC officials had been actively recruiting him since late last spring.

The involvement of both, experts say, demonstrates the importance of the 2010 governor’s race both in Michigan and nationally. It also shows the low confidence national Democrats have in Lt. Gov. John Cherry to keep the governorship from falling into Republican control.

There are two principal reasons why the race is important to both parties in the state of Michigan. The first is the effect the candidate at the top of the ticket has downballot.

“The best thing that can be said about whoever is the Democratic nominee is you hope, if you are a Democrat, that person does well in the race for governor because he or she will probably have some coat tail effect on other candidates on the same party ticket on down the ballot,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “If a nominee of a particular party is getting wiped out at the top of the ticket, it could have a devastating effect on the other candidates of the same party, on the same day, in the same election.”

Ballenger is a Republican who has held offices in the state, as well as a post in the Ford White House.

In short, with Democrats vying to keep control of the Michigan House, and win a majority in the Senate in 2010, the candidate at the top of the ticket is going to have an impact.

The second reason the 2010 gubernatorial election is vital to both parties in this state: Redistricting for the state legislature and Congress is coming up.

Keeping control of the Michigan House and winning the Senate is important, said Democrat Mark Grebner, an Ingham County commissioner who runs Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing, because those two houses and the governor are going to create new legislative districts based on the 2010 census. How districts in Michigan are drawn impacts the competitiveness with districts often drawn to favor specific parties.

Thus, new districts drawn to favor Democrats could result in a decade of Democratic majorities, and likewise, districts drawn to benefit Republicans could result in GOP majorities for a decade. Control of the legislative agenda is at stake.

But there is also the impact that the 2010 governor’s race can have upticket.

In addition to control over both chambers of the legislature, the sitting governor could have a strong impact on the 2012 presidential election, Grebner said.

“It’s about Democratic or progressive politics,” Grebner said. “Having Mike Cox as governor would not make life better for [President] Barack [Obama].”

But Ballenger said the party in control of the governor’s mansion will have little effect on whether Obama will win the state in 2012, noting that presidential candidates from the opposition party of the sitting governor have, in the last couple of decades, done well in the state. He points to Republican Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1984, as well as Democrat Bill Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996. In 1984, Michigan was being run by Democrat Jim Blanchard, and in 1992 and 1996, Republican John Engler was governor.

Ballenger said Michigan voters look at how the country is doing, and what the candidates stand for, not who is governor in the state.

Both Grebner and Ballenger said the White House and DNC are worried about Cherry’s chances because polling is consistently showing Granholm’s No. 2 trailing his Republican rivals. Grebner was particularly harsh in his assessment of his own party’s position going into 2010.

“They’re watching a train wreck,” said Grebner. “We have a walrus running for governor. It’s like putting up Geoffrey Feiger again. We’re really that stupid?”

“If we’re talking now about whether John Cherry is going to be a strong Democratic nominee, and remember that is not a sure thing a year out, the Democrats could be concerned because current polling shows him not doing very well against the Republicans. That’s an issue,” Ballenger said.

But is Virg Bernero the answer for Democrats?

Both Ballenger and Grebner say no.

“I don’t think Virg ends up winning the nomination,” said Grebner. “He is stronger on paper than in an election.”

Looking to history, Ballenger said Bernero’s chances of winning of the governor’s office are slim, at best.

He said there have only been two men elected Michigan governor while mayor of a city — and both were mayor of Detroit. One was 109 years ago and the other was 73 years ago. Ballenger pointed out that C.S. Mott attempted a run for governor as a Republican 53 years ago, and he lost.

“[Mayors getting elected as governors] just doesn’t happen,” Ballenger said. “That doesn’t mean lightning couldn’t strike and an historical moment couldn’t happen in the person of Bernero or somebody else from some other small Michigan city who might choose to run for governor and get elected.”

Bernero said he is waiting to make a final decision based on how much a campaign to win will cost him. He said that was going to be his deciding factor.

Ballenger said for Bernero to run a credible race, he is going to have raise and spend at least $3 to $5 million, while Grebner puts the cost at between $5 and $10 million. In 2002, when Granholm faced former Gov. James Blanchard and then-U.S. Rep. John Bonior in the Democratic primary, campaign records show she raised $6.5 million and spent just over $6.4 million to win the primary.