Pollster: Knollenberg, Walberg ‘could lose in November’

Joe Knollenberg

In Oakland County (MI-09) the latest poll shows incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg leading Democrat Gary Peters 43 percent to 36 percent, but polling data indicate that lead could disappear as Peters’ name recognition grows through campaigning.

In the Ninth Congressional District, voters are unhappy with Knollenberg’s job performance: 47 percent give him negative marks, compared with 35 percent positive.

Peters, a former state lottery commissioner and state senator from Bloomfield Township, is not recognized by 56 percent of voters, while only 10 percent said they didn’t recognize Knollenberg’s name

While pollsters say Knollenberg has the advantage this election cycle, the Ninth District has been battered for years by the loss of jobs in the auto industry and home foreclosures that will surely weigh upon voters’ minds as they head to the polls in November. If Peters’ name recognition improves as it should as we near Election Day, the increasingly Dem-leaning Ninth District could decide it’s time to say buh-bye Joe, and hello to change.

Polling results also show that when those polled are read biographies of each candidate that includes their ages (Knollenberg is 75; Peters is 49), Peters gains a four-point lead over the nine-term incumbent.

An increasing Democratic-leaning constituency in Oakland County may also plague Knollenberg at the polls come November. The vocal Democrats in the area have long decried Knollenberg’s support of the war in Iraq and his failure to vote in favor of the failed SCHIPS legislation that would have provided health care insurance for thousands of Michigan children.

Tim Walberg

In Michigan’s Seventh district, Republican Tim Walberg, 57, and Democrat Mark Schauer, 47 are neck and neck in their district that includes all of five counties — Eaton, Jackson, Lenawee, Hillsdale and Branch — as well as most of Calhoun and Washtenaw counties:

Walberg, of Tipton, leads Schauer, a state senator from Battle Creek, by 43 percent to 40 percent, which is within the poll’s 4.9-point error margin. A decisive 14 percent of voters in the district are undecided.

While the Seventh District has a strong Republican bent, incumbent Walberg has been polled with increasing dissatisfaction among his constituents. In this poll, voters by 43 percent to 32 percent give Walberg negative ratings for his job performance. When elected, Walberg won over an even more conservative Republican, and some Democratic strategists believe that Walberg himself may now be too conservative-leaning for this district.

Schauer has yet to run a TV ad during this campaign, and with a race this close, advertising that highlights the differences in the two candidates may be enough to sway that undecided 14 percent and turn the Seventh District into another former Republican district.