Poll shows Conyers, Kilpatrick losing to hypothetical opponents

Two big names in Detroit politics could be facing serious trouble next year if they run for re-election. And their names — Conyers and Kilpatrick — are their biggest liabilities.

A recent poll of voters in the 13th and 14th congressional districts shows that the two incumbents, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and John Conyers Jr., both of whom have been tarnished by corruption convictions involving members of their family, would each lose to hypothetical opponents if the 2010 election were held today.

Earlier this week, the Detroit Free Press reported on the results of the poll, which could provoke others to challenge the two veteran politicians in a Democratic primary next year.

Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of disgraced former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, has been in Congress since 1997 but barely won a primary fight to keep her seat in 2008. Faced with challenges from former state Rep. Mary Waters and state Sen. Martha Scott, Kilpatrick managed to win the nomination with only 39.1 percent of the vote as the two challengers split the vote against her. Waters, who was indicted on federal corruption charges this summer, faces her own image problems.

A new face, however, may fare better if they take on the congresswoman in the Democratic primary.

When asked by Denno Noor Polling whether they would vote for Kilpatrick or for someone else, only 27 percent said they would vote to re-elect the congresswoman in 2010. Fifty-eight percent said they would vote for someone else and 14 percent said they were unsure.

Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, told the Michigan Messenger earlier this week that Kilpatrick “clearly has a problem” and that she “probably would have been beaten in 2008 if there hadn’t been two people running against her, if there had only been one.” If a single challenger emerges to her in next year’s Democratic primary, he said, she’s likely to lose.

The poll showed similar results for John Conyers, though the numbers aren’t quite as bad for the veteran congressman who chairs the powerful House Judiciary Committee. Conyers’ wife, Monica, is the former Detroit City Council member who recently pleaded guilty to federal corruption charges for accepting bribes in exchange for city business.

And while 76 percent of respondents said that her troubles would not influence their vote for her husband next year, something has to explain the dramatic loss of support since last fall’s election.

Conyers has served in Congress for 44 years and has never faced a serious challenge for re-election. In 2008, he won with more than 80 percent of the vote. While such a powerful legislator rarely faces primary opposition, this poll showed that 44 percent of voters would vote for someone else while only 40 percent said they would vote for Conyers. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Ballenger said that while a successful challenge to Conyers is less likely than than a successful unseating of Kilpatrick, this poll clearly indicates that there may be an opportunity there. The new poll, he said, “seems to indicate that for a variety of reasons, Conyers is vulnerable.”

Part of it is Monica Conyers’ troubles, he said, nothing that she “has gotten so much worse over the years that she’s far worse now than she was two years ago or four years ago.”

He also pointed to the fact that Conyers is in his 80s and that there are a number of attractive candidates who are term limited at the state level that could mount a serious challenge. “There’s a whole bunch of fairly attractive, younger African-American politicians — or they don’t even have to be African-American because that district isn’t even majority African-American anymore I don’t think — who are in position” to challenge Conyers, he said.

“Buzz Thomas is a good example,” Ballenger said, referring to the state senator from Detroit.

All of this will play out in the primaries, Ballenger said: “Forget the general election, that has nothing to do with this. It’s all about the primaries. No Republican is going to win those seats, it’s all primary. If there’s only one or two people challenging Conyers and there’s a lot of people out there saying it’s time for a change and Conyers is tainted by his wife’s actions, then yeah, they can win.”