CQ Politics handicaps Michigan congressional races

Congressional Quarterly’s CQ Politics site has an article analyzing all of the races for the U.S. House of Representatives in every district in every state. The point to three races in Michigan that should be major battleground districts in 2010, races that both parties have already targeted as either possible to win or vital to retain.

The first key battleground race is in District 7, the seat currently held by Rep. Mark Schauer (D). He squeaked out a very narrow victory over incumbent Tim Walberg last year, 48.8 percent to 46.5 percent, and Walberg has already declared that 2010 will be a rematch between the two of them. CQ Politics says of this race:

The area covered by the 7th District — which includes the city of Jackson, one of the birthplaces of the Republican Party — has had Republican representation for most of its history. But Schauer, a former state legislative Democratic leader, scored a narrow victory in the 7th District race in 2008 by riding a national tide favoring his party, and tying one-term Republican incumbent Walberg to President George W. Bush and his unpopular administration. Walberg is now seeking a 2010 rematch. Announcing his bid July 14, Walberg said he “cannot sit idly while Congressman Schauer votes to raise taxes, spend trillions we don’t have.” And he will try to turn the tables from 2008 by casting Schauer as too liberal and too apt to support the agenda of President Barack Obama (though Obama, in an unusually strong showing for a Democratic presidential candidate, took the district’s vote by 6 percentage points over Republican John McCain). Republican campaign units have already gone up with radio ads attacking Schauer for supporting the economic stimulus package that Obama pushed into law in February. But Republicans face no easy chore reclaiming the seat from Schauer, a seasoned candidate with strong fundraising skills. Schauer outraised Walberg by $2.3 million to $2.1 million in the 2008 campaign cycle, and is off to a healthy start for 2010. He has raised $737,000 in the first six months of the year, and ended June with $633,000 in cash reserves.

The second battleground race is District 11, a seat currently held by Rep. Thad McCotter, a Republican from Livonia. McCotter beat challenger Joseph Larkin 51.4 percent to 45.4 percent in 2008, a relatively narrow victory over a vastly underfunded opponent. Democrats have long felt this was a district they could win but they’ve had trouble finding a really viable candidate to oppose McCotter. CQ Politics writes of this race:

McCotter, the current chairmen of the House Republican Policy Committee, was not a top-tier target of Democratic strategists in the 2006 and 2008 elections. But McCotter’s victory margins over vastly underfunded opponents in those contests were underwhelming. Those outcomes have prompted Democrats to portray the four-term incumbent as vulnerable to a legitimate 2010 challenge in his suburban Detroit district, where the 2008 presidential vote went to Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by 54 percent to 45 percent.The party, however, is still working on recruiting a top-flight challenger, as state House Speaker Andy Dillon and state Sen. Glenn Anderson have ruled out runs. The only declared Democratic candidate is Natalie Mosher, a former art teacher and civic leader who lives in exurban Canton, but party officials say they are in talks with several other prospective candidates.

The third battleground race is District 9, currently held by Rep. Gary Peters (D). He defeated incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg last year by a nearly 10-point margin, but CQ Politics considers this district as only “leaning” Democratic for 2010.

Oakland County Republican Paul Welday was an aide to Knollenberg, the district’s former eight-term representative, and he’s going to try to do something his ex-boss didn’t do: defeat Democrat Peters, the experienced campaigner who captured the seat in the 2008 election. First, however, he may have to be get by a primary fight with Andrew Raczkowski, a former state representative and military veteran, who filed paperwork early in July to raise money for a 9th District campaign. Raczkowski ran for the U.S. Senate as a longshot challenger in 2002 but lost to veteran Democratic incumbent Carl Levin by 61 percent to 38 percent.Whomever emerges from the GOP primary hopes to benefit from the district’s traditional Republican tilt. Democrats, however, ran strongly in the district in 2008, with Peters unseating Knollenberg by nearly 10 percentage points and Barack Obama beating Republican opponent John McCain by 56 percent to 43 percent in the presidential contest. Economic anxiety contributed to Democrats’ success and particularly to Peters’ win in a suburban Detroit district where bankrupted automaker Chrysler has long had its corporate headquarters. Michigan’s deep and long-running recession is bound to again be the backdrop to the 2010 election, and much hinges on how voters respond to the Obama administration’s economic recovery program, which Peters has largely supported. Aware that he will be a target for Republican strategists, Peters has already been busy raising big money. His campaign committee reported a whopping $908,000 in receipts during the first six months of this year.

The rest of the seats in the Michigan congressional delegation should be safe for the party currently holding them.