In the wake of Chrysler declaring bankruptcy because debtholders refused to accept the terms of a government-mandated debt restructuring, the negotiations between General Motors, the Treasury Department and the company’s bondholders continue. Unfortunately, they have radically different proposals at this point.
The latest proposal from GM and the government would write down about $27 billion in debt in exchange for about $3 billion in cash plus a 5-10% stake in a newly restructured GM. Under that proposal, the UAW’s employee healthcare plan, the Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association (VEBA) would own 39% of the company and the government would control just over 50% (that control would decrease as the billions of dollars in government loans are paid back).
The latest counteroffer from the bondholders could scarcely be more different:
Under their proposal, the bondholders would get 58% of a reconstituted GM — compared with about 10% under the company’s Monday proposal. The ad hoc committee represents about 20% of GM’s $27 billion in unsecured debt.
The UAW’s retiree health care trust, which is owed about $20 billion in obligations, would get 41% of GM. Current shareholders would get 1%.
The U.S. government, which has so far lent GM $15.4 billion, would not get a stake.
It’s hard to see much room for compromise between these two diametrically opposite visions for the company. The Chrysler bankruptcy is widely viewed as a very blunt message from the government to GM’s bondholders, a shot across their bow to tell them that this is a game of hardball and if they don’t agree to the terms offered, the Obama administration has no problem forcing GM into bankruptcy as well.
There’s another month of negotiations ahead, but with the two sides so far apart and the administration sending clear messages of not compromising its position, it’s difficult to see how it doesn’t end in bankruptcy for GM as well unless the bondholders lose their nerve.