A new CBS News poll contains data that shows why the controversy over the appearance of Jon Huntsman in Kent County matters — and why the GOP ought to be careful how it treats moderates like him. His appearance was canceled because he favors civil unions for gays and lesbians, something that is anathema to the social conservative base. But that base isn’t large enough to win elections with and they are pretty much alone in rejecting civil unions at this point.
The new poll shows that Americans support either same-sex marriage or civil unions by a nearly 3-1 margin. 42% favor same-sex marriage (a jump of 8 points in the last 9 months and 12 points in the last two years), 25% support civil unions and only 28% say they should have no legal recognition at all (a drop of 11 points in the last 9 months). Even among those who identified themselves as conservatives, only 44% said that gay relationships should have no legal recognition at all.
And when you go by party identification, it’s even worse. Among Republicans, it’s a tie at 49% between those who favor same-sex marriage or civil unions and those who reject both. But less than 30% now identify as Republicans, which means if they want to win elections, the GOP has to attract independents and even some self-identified Democrats. And among independents, 69% favor same-sex marriage or civil unions and only 25% favor no legal recognition.
And the numbers get even worse when viewed by demographics. Among those under 40 years old, support for same-sex marriage is at 57%, plus the support for civil unions. So you can expect this trend to pick up speed over the next few years. By the time we get to the 2010 and 2012 elections, this is going to be an even bigger problem for the GOP. How do they keep their social conservative base happy on this issue without losing everyone else? The answer, I suspect, is that they can’t.