Republican strategists predict failure in 2010

Michigan Liberal reports on a new study put out by a group of prominent Republican strategists predicting that the Democrats will retain control of the governor’s office and the House and reduce the Republican edge in the Senate to only two seats in 2010. The report cited is from MIRS, which is subscription only, so it is cited here from the Michigan Liberal post:

A new white paper by MDJ&R Strategy Consultants takes a look at why the GOP went from controlling the governor’s mansion and both houses of the Legislature before the last redistricting in 2000 to having a Democratic governor and House today. Their study of election data trends predicts neither will change hands in the 2010 election and Republicans will drop to a 20-18 majority in the Senate.

“The numbers aren’t there to be successful in 2010,” said Dennis DARNOI, former chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mike BISHOP (R-Rochester). “It’s clear that the message the top-of-the-ticket candidates have been using isn’t resonating. It hasn’t been successful for six years.”

Darnoi said the GOP has lost suburban and independent voters, particularly from the five biggest counties — Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent and Grand Traverse. Only 32 percent of Michigan voters identify as Republicans, even though 40 percent say they’re conservative. Republicans need an 83-county strategy, he said.

The study cites significant shifts in party identification in key Michigan counties and used some fairly Republican-friendly assumptions.

The consultants looked at county data from 2000 to 2008. Former President George W. BUSH won 68 counties in 2004 — besting the GOP average from 2000 to 2006 of 61 counties and Granholm’s 55 in 2006. The 2010 model assumes a 3.99 million turnout. It gives the GOP gubernatorial nominee every county Bush won and even assumes s/he will win Oakland County at 56 percent, which County Executive L. Brooks PATTERSON did in 2008. That goes against the current Democratic trend.

The model also assumes the nominee will lose the other counties by the least margin possible. That especially makes a difference in the massive Democratic stronghold of Wayne County, which is how Engler won in 1990. But times and demographics have changed. The 2010 nominee is still on track to lose by 96,000 votes. While it’s a far cry from Granholm’s 525,000-vote margin in ’06, it still means that Republicans haven’t cracked the code of how to win in Michigan under the current political climate.

Still, I would caution against taking this too seriously. We are still 18 months away from the next election and a great deal can change in that time. It’s far too early for anyone to be predicting victory in 2010.